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Forum:2015 Pacific hurricane season/December
December AOI:GFS CPac December storm! AOI:GFS CPac December storm! no no no no no no im not even joking. 97' Pakaredux anyone? but since this is an el nino... --HurricaneOdile | drop something in the box • • 17:51, November 27, 2015 (UTC) : That's 384 hours out, way too far to accurately tell for sure. But...since 2015-16 is probably going to end up as the strongest super El Nino ever recorded, I wouldn't be surprised if we see a post-season storm or two pop up. Ryan1000 20:06, November 27, 2015 (UTC) ::If we get a potential Pali in December, I'd be shocked. This CPac season has gone on long enough, and another named storm would be amazing and extends the record of this insane CPac activity. I wouldn't be surprised to see a December system somewhere in the EPac though, especially due to the currently occurring super El Nino. [[User:Steve820 |'''Steve820]] [[Message Wall:Steve820 #top|''Happy Thanksgiving!]]' 20:32, November 27, 2015 (UTC) ::::GFS is still forecasting it, and now it's 156 hours out. We'll see if anything actually develops though. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 15:33, December 5, 2015 (UTC) ::::GFS develops it by next Monday... --HurricaneOdile | happy holidays! and year 16:52, December 5, 2015 (UTC) :::::The EPac is insane. If the forecast comes true, I'll be shocked for real. [[User:Steve820 |'''Steve820]] ''Talk to me''' 19:32, December 5, 2015 (UTC) ::::::The CMC is also forecasting it. Currently the low expected to become this is producing a bunch of disorganized showers in the EPAC. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 03:42, December 7, 2015 (UTC) :::::::The GFS and CMC are only showing a minimal tropical storm now... ~Raindrop57 (talk) 00:37, December 9, 2015 (UTC) ::::::::I think this forecast is all over. It's been a week and still no signs of something. The EPac season is finished. '[[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] ��[[Message Wall:Steve820 #top|''Happy Holidays!]] ��' 23:56, December 16, 2015 (UTC) 09C.NONAME 99W.INVEST : This is a very strange system. Despite being called 99W, it's east of 180 degrees longitude, although close. (175.7 degrees west) It's VERY close to the equator, at I think a record 0.9 degrees north. It currently has a central cold cover (CCC) pattern, a very rare occurence. If this develops into anything, that would be insane. This could also develop in the WPAC, in which case this discussion will be moved there. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 21:00, December 29, 2015 (UTC) : Infrared satellite image. The latest note on it's floater page notes that there's indeed a closed circulation. : If this becomes Pali before the new year, it will be the latest EPAC storm on record, and if it forms after the new year, then it will be the earliest on record. It doesn't have model support though. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 18:22, December 30, 2015 (UTC) ::: It's continued to strengthen, with T-numbers at T1.5/25 knots. It's got a well defined circulation, and it's likely almost at tropical depression strength. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 18:22, December 30, 2015 (UTC) :::: This invest is really rare and fascinating. I can't believe we are seeing something located so close to the equator that could become a TD this late in the year. Its location might prevent a closed circulation from developing, so I would be somewhat shocked if this is a TD. For now, the CPHC outlook pins the invest at a 30% shot of developing. Truly incredible. [[User:Steve820 |'''Steve820]] ��[[Message Wall:Steve820 #top|''Happy Holidays!]] ��' 20:31, December 30, 2015 (UTC) 90C.INVEST Looks like it's now recognised as an invest by the CPHC as well. I can't believe it even has a chance at development! And it actually already has a closed circulation, which gives an answer to that issue. Unfortunately T-numbers have dropped a bit, but systems commonly reorganize. I hope if this develops, it forms during this year, as then it would be the only EPAC storm to ever exist in two years! I'm amazed that this system is here, it's definitely a first! ~Raindrop57 (talk) 00:47, December 31, 2015 (UTC) Tropical Depression Nine-C ATCF: CP, 09, 2015123100, , BEST, 0, 27N, 1775W, 30, 1001, TD. ... Uwotm8. Ryan1000 02:40, December 31, 2015 (UTC) :Confirmed on CPHC page. This storm formed the latest in the Northern Hemisphere (beating Alice 1954).--Isaac829 03:15, December 31, 2015 (UTC) :::Unfortunately, it's not expected to become named until after it crosses the dateline, so we may not see Pali here. Even if it doesn't become named, this is nonetheless the 31th TD of the season, which surpasses 1992's previous record of 30. If it does bcome Pali, we'll not only tie 1992's named storm record for the most active season on record, but we'll have more than twice 1982's previous CPac named storm record (9 vs 4). Ryan1000 03:23, December 31, 2015 (UTC) big shoutout to the GFS for picking up this on several days. at some point it reached 0.3 north! it also has beaten Ekeka's record too --HurricaneOdile | happy holidays! and year 03:33, December 31, 2015 (UTC) : It became a depression? How astonishing! I can't believe the CPac would produce something so late in the year. It's also forecast to cross 2 calendar years, and is like the most equatorial system ever recorded, with a similar latitude to Agni. Since this is the 31st depression, like Ryan said above, this year is now the most active EPac season on record in terms of amount of TDs. What an amazing season it has been... [[User:Steve820 |'''Steve820]] ��[[Message Wall:Steve820 #top|''Happy Holidays!]] ��' 04:06, December 31, 2015 (UTC) ::: What? No way! This is absolutely insane! I'm stunned at the persistance of this system so late in the year! Even though it's a depression, the fact that it's almost 2016 is astonishing. I hope it pulls one last surprise and becomes Pali instead of a WPAC storm, but I'm just stunned to see my wish for an off-season storm come true at the last minute. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 04:15, December 31, 2015 (UTC) :::: I know this event is insane! It's even forecast to become named before crossing the dateline now. But it probably won't be named until the weekend or so, so it looks like it won't be a 9th named CPac storm, but instead the earliest CPac named storm on record. This is really an extremely insane event. [[User:Steve820 |'''Steve820]] ��[[Message Wall:Steve820 #top|''2016 has arrived!]] ��' 20:48, December 31, 2015 (UTC) :::::: So will this storm be considered a 2015 storm or a 2016 storm then, if it gets named in 2016? ~Raindrop57 (talk) 21:21, December 31, 2015 (UTC) :::::::Probably still a 2015 storm.--Isaac829 22:10, December 31, 2015 (UTC) Remnants of Nine-c i guess... --HurricaneOdile | happy holidays! and year 17:05, January 1, 2016 (UTC) : That wasn't too surprising as the previous discussion had mentioned that it seemed to be degenerating into a trough, but it's too bad it's already dissipated. I'm just amazed it became a depression at all, though. But because it seems to have dissipated before January 1 in the CPAC time zone, looks like it didn't survive to 2016 after all, unless it regenerates. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 16:51, January 1, 2016 (UTC) : it did cross year per the last warning. --HurricaneOdile | happy holidays! and year 17:05, January 1, 2016 (UTC) ::: However, it was no longer a tropical cyclone at that time, either. It's hard to say, as it could have dissipated any time between the two advisories, not just at the advisory time. (5:00 HST) ~Raindrop57 (talk) 17:30, January 1, 2016 (UTC) ::::It survived into 2016. When determining that, UTC is used, and since 11pm HST last night is equivalent to 0300 UTC this morning, 9-C survived into 2016. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 20:59, January 1, 2016 (UTC) ::::::Oh, I see. It's based on UTC time, not the actual time zone. Thanks. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 21:56, January 1, 2016 (UTC) :::::::The depression dissipated already? I thought we would see Pali from this! It's still amazing that it crossed two years though. However, it might still have a shot at regeneration (in my opinion)... [[User:Steve820 |'''Steve820]] ��[[Message Wall:Steve820 #top|''2016 has arrived!]] ��' 22:42, January 1, 2016 (UTC) :::::::Wut? I completely missed this. Well, I guess the CPac has pulled its final surprise of 2015. Wow. Leeboy1002016 04:12, January 4, 2016 (UTC)